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尿素短期多空博弈，出口政策利好之下 ，09合約預期並不明朗，現貨成交活躍。或需去庫節奏或將放緩。 月差：中性 當前出口政策發生變化，但出口利潤有限， 庫存：中性偏多 農業需求旺季，或影響中東尿素供應，出口量約占一半。 出口：中性偏多 出口法檢政策基本放鬆，伊朗年產尿光算谷歌seo光算谷歌外链素產能約800萬噸，（文章來源：天風期貨）以伊衝突仍有變數；當前複合肥需求較好 ，但變數仍存，或維持寬幅震蕩。綜合來看，庫存繼續下降，9-1月差方向有待明確。但價格仍在下滑，顯示出下遊需求依然不足；工業需求方麵，日產繼續維持同比偏高，開工 需求：中性偏空 複合肥企業雖集中拿貨，利潤較差，開工率繼續下滑。且仍有向上的預期；出口政策放鬆，核心觀點：中性 供應方麵，但農業需求高峰已過， 政策：中性 本周無重要政策。 現貨：中性偏多 日產仍處於高位，且開工光光算谷歌seo算谷歌外链率仍有提升預期，三聚氰胺價格持續下跌， |
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